Well we’re back at again here folks with another round of NFL propositional bets for this Sunday’s Conference Championship games. After going 4-1 on our 5 plays last weekend I’m looking to double up after digging through the prop bets on the board for Sunday.
You can find a complete listing of the propositional board on Bovada.lv and I encourage you to leave comments in the designated section at the end of this post in order to share any bets you may like for the weekend.
So let’s get into this week’s action…..
I’ll start the festivities by laying out a quick hitter involving Colin Kaepernick in the 49ers tilt with the Falcons. This is not an official play but rather a chance for us all to lay a small bet on a huge underdog with a solid chance to hit. Kaepernick is listed at +700 to have the most total passing yards this weekend and while it’s obviously a long shot I plan on taking advantage of the big line on the off chance it hits.
COLIN KAEPERNICK LONGEST RUSH OVER 18.5 YARDS (-130)
Kaepernick’s performance last week alone (a game in which he ran for 181 yards and 2 TD’s) gives me great confidence in his ability to get the job done here. I’m aware it’s a new week and he’s facing a new defense but the young man has been playing at a high level and I feel good about him getting loose for a long gainer in this contest.
From a statistical standpoint Kaepernick has had a rush of 19 or more in 50% of the games he’s played on the season so at worst this is a 50/50 proposition on Sunday. Also of note is the Atlanta defense that , while better of late, is still in the bottom third of the league in terms of run defense. They plan to put ILB Sean Weatherspoon on Kaepernick in a “spy” capacity and although Weatherspoon is capable in this role, I like Kaepernick to take advantage of him once or twice.
MATT RYAN UNDER 280.5 TOTAL PASSING YARDS (-105)
Facing a tough test again this week will make hitting this mark difficult for Ryan and I’m confident that he’ll put up similar numbers to last week when he amassed 250 yards through the air. I’ve read and heard many call for the Falcons to get blown out in this game which inherently increases the number of pass attempts and thus yardage for a quarterback although I do not buy into this analysis.
I feel this is going to be a hotly contested game and as such I look for Ryan and the Falcons to have a more balanced attack on display. Look for Ryan to creep up on the 280 yard mark but not exceed it this weekend.
RODDY WHITE WILL HAVE OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (-140)
White has met this mark in 9 of his 17 games this season which gives us a 53% chance of hitting here on its face. Add to this the 143 targets White received this year and we can surmise that he’ll certainly get the looks in order to make this bet pay out. Drilling further into the target total we find that Hot Roddy has had the ball thrown his way at least 10 times in 4 of his last 5 contests. I like these numbers and will make this play with confidence.
Look for White to get his usual high target total of which he should haul in at least 7 which puts a little cash in our pockets.
RODDY WHITE WILL SCORE A TD (+135)
Just as I did with Joe Flacco last week I’m looking at Roddy White to hit two bets this weekend. The second of which comes from him getting into the end zone against the 49ers. White went through a scoreless spell in the middle of the regular season but has stepped it up a bit by scoring in 3 of his last 5 games. I like his chances here and would not be surprised to see him get a couple quality red zone looks early in this contest.
So to recap we have 4 official plays and an extra big dog play for this weekend. Enjoy the games on Sunday and keep your eyes peeled during Super Bowl week as I will be putting together a comprehensive look at the multitude of propositional bets that will be on the board for the big game. Best of luck to all!