Do Not Draft List – QB Edition

With or without Josh Gordon this season, is Johnny Football really going to be a Top 20 Fantasy QB in 2014? With or without Josh Gordon this season, is Johnny Football really going to be a Top 20 Fantasy QB in 2014?

One of our most popular articles every season, last season we advised you to avoid QBs who underperformed like Eli Manning and Colin Kaepernick, which worked out pretty well.  Ray and I were advising you to avoid Cam Newton, but I was advising not to “draft” him, but make a trade for him if he struggled out of the gate because I liked his schedule to end the season.  Either way, if you avoided Cam, it probably didn’t cost you your season, but he did perform right at about his draft slot.  Here are a few QBs we think are worthy of avoiding this season.

Raymond Summerlin:

Peyton Manning, QB – Denver Broncos:

To be extremely clear, Peyton Manning is the No. 1 quarterback on my board and will likely finish the season at least in the top three at the position, but the simple truth is he is going too early in drafts. The depth of the position and the fact that most leagues only start one quarterback means his first round ADP is insane. He would have to almost completely recreate his 2013 this season to justify his current draft position, and that just is not going to happen. I am waiting on quarterback this season.

 

Shane P. Hallam:

Colin Rand Kaepernick, QB – San Francisco 49ers:

Kaepernick is a fine NFL QB, but he is in a system that prefers to pound the rock and he still has development until he becomes a top flight NFL QB.  After a ton of hype last season, Kaepernick failed to live up to expectations and had some pretty underwhelming fantasy games.  San Francisco’s defense and running game will carry them and they will focus on controlling the clock and limiting snaps.  This provides not only less volume for Kaepernick, but less fantasy opportunity to make the big plays with his feet that would endear him to your fantasy team.

Look at the other QBs going around Kaepernick’s ADP.  Nick Foles is in a snap heavy Chip Kelly offense.  Jay Cutler is in a snap heavy Marc Trestman offense.  Tony Romo is paired with the pass happy Scott Linehan.  These players may not be as talented as Kaepernick, but their opportunities, snaps, and passing numbers will be higher which ultimately leads to more fantasy points for you.

Jared Ferree:

Cam Jerrell Newton, QB – Carolina Panthers:

There are different ADPs for Cam Newton with MyFantasyLeague.com showing him as the #7 QB, while he is #10 at FantasyFootballCalculator.com. The Panthers seem to be very content running the ball with their RBs and with Newton, and this team should continue to be a run heavy offense. Outside of Greg Olsen, Newton has an entirely new group of WRs, and he’s not playing this pre-season so it may take a few weeks for him to get on the same page with them. I like Newton as a player, but the Panthers want to play defense, run the ball, and get out with a win. They feel slightly like the East Coast version of the 49ers; Run the Ball, Play Defense, win the game 10-6 and we are happy. I figure that Newton’s higher ADP at MFL has to do with leagues that are 4 point passing TDs. I don’t know how many leagues you guys play in like that, but I only play in one, and if I was commissioner it would be the first rule I changed. Love Newton’s talent, but I don’t love him in fantasy on a run first team with a new cast of weapons. How he is getting drafted ahead of Matt Ryan and Tony Romo I have no idea.

 

Jonathan Paul Manziel, QB – Cleveland Browns:

Unlike Newton’s ADP, Manziel’s is listed as the 18th QB off the board at both MFL and FFC, and I’m suggesting you pass on Manziel unless it’s a deep 2 QB league. While some act like it will be a shock if Manziel isn’t the Day one starter, I won’t be. Even if he is, I expect him to have some growing pains, a lot of turnovers, and I’m happy to let someone else take the risk. I am looking forward to watching Browns’ games this season once Manziel is the starter, but I’m not sure when that will be. I also will concede the fact that he will have some great games, but he’s bound to have stinkers as well. The draft day price on him is too steep for me when he is going ahead of guys like Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, and Sam Bradford. If it’s a deeper 4 Point Passing TD league, I don’t mind someone taking him for the upside, but his ADP will be even higher in league like that so he probably won’t be on any of my teams this season.

 

So basically, Shane didn’t like Kaepernick last season, and he still doesn’t like him. Ray thinks Peyton Manning will be #1, but the draft day price is too high, and I’m advising you to avoid Cam Newton and the guy who had the entire nation tuning into a meaningless game in Detroit on Saturday, this should be interesting!

 

 

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