Odds for Defensive Rookie Of The Year

luke-kuechly (3)

With one of my focuses being on NFL Draft scouting, I am always interested in bets that deal with the incoming rookies in the NFL. The easiest to locate is Offensive and Defensive rookies of the year, so I looked up some different sportsbooks and found some different odds that really intrigued me and are worth discussing.

Starting with the defensive side of the ball, the history of the award shows you where the smart money should be. Over the last 20 years, the winners have come from the following positions:

11 Linebackers (4 of them OLBs in a 3-4 defense)
4 Defensive Ends
3 Defensive Tackles
2 Cornerbacks

In terms of round drafted:

18 first round picks (6 in the Top 5, 9 in the Top 10)
2 second round picks
0 in the 3rd+ rounds

The rankings for this season are as follows:

Bruce Irvin +2000
Casey Hayward +1500
Chandler Jones +800
Courtney Upshaw +1000
Donta Hightower +1000
Dontari Poe +1500
Dre Kirkpatrick +1000
Fletcher Cox +1000
Harrison Smith +1500
Janoris Jenkins +1500
Jerel Worthy +2500
Luke Kuechly +800
Mark Barron +1200
Melvin Ingram +1800
Michael Brockers +1800
Morris Claiborne +800
Mychal Kendricks +1500
Nick Perry +2000
Quinton Coples +1500
Stephon Gilmore +1500
Field (all Others) +500

My top 5 bets are as follows:

1. Luke Kuechly, LB, Carolina Panthers, +800 – With the statistics above, LB is the prime position to win defensive rookie of the year and first round picks generally have the opportunity to rack up enough stats to impress the voters. The favorite in the race is the best bet in Luke Kuechly who, in three years in college, had 532 total tackles. He has already taken the starting position at MLB for the Panthers and has the instincts and technique to get well over 100+ tackles and maybe an interception or two. He may not have flashy sack statistics, but if no rookie emerges as a double digit sack threat, Kuechly is as safe as you can bet on the award.

2. Nick Perry, LB, Green Bay Packers, +2000 – If you are looking to make a big splash, a pass rushing LB has been in the discussion for rookie of the year the past few seasons, and about a third of the rookie LBs who have won the award in the past 20 years have played outside in a 3-4 system. Perry is playing in the same position Clay Matthews played last season and should be starting from Day 1. With the media attention around the Packers, 10+ sacks from Perry will give him a great shot at the award.

3. Courtney Upshaw, LB, Baltimore Ravens +1000 – For a bit of a safer option than Perry in steps the Alabama graduate who is well known by the media and country alike. With Terrell Suggs’ injury, Upshaw will be given the opportunity as a situational pass rusher and put his hand at DE pretty often to rush the quarterback. He is talented, but not the athletic freak of some of the first round selections. If you want to take a shot on a second round pick, Upshaw is a real possibility.

4. Quinton Coples, DE, New York Jets +1500 – Probably the best all around defensive end in the draft, Coples has the length and ability to put up a double digit sack season with the tremendous secondary play from the Jets. With the emergence of Aaron Maybin, teams may not be able to key in on Coples. If he is motivated, he could emerge like Aldon Smith did last year and take his abuse out on the poor offensive lines of Buffalo and Miami.

5. Field (All Others) +500 – History doesn’t say this is a great bet, but there are a few players left off the list who may have the opportunity to win the award. LB Lavonte David in Tampa Bay was the 2nd best tackler in the nation last year in college (behind Kuechly,) and should be on the field a lot. DE Shea McClellin of the Bears is an underrated player who did go in the first round and should be on the list. Finally, LB Bobby Wagner will be the starting MLB for the Seattle Seahawks and also have the opportunity for big numbers similar to Kuechly.

No comments yet.

Leave a comment

Comment form

All fields marked (*) are required

© 2012 Pro Football Addicts.

Back to top.